As Iran grapples with significant unrest, Israel finds itself in a position of cautious observation, waiting to see what steps former President Trump might take next.
While the protests have dramatically tested the Iranian regime’s ability to handle dissent, Israel—arguably the nation that stands to gain the most from this turmoil—has opted to remain on the sidelines. Interestingly, even at a time when Iran appears more vulnerable than it has in years, Israel is showing restraint rather than jumping into the fray.
After months of issuing public threats towards Iran, there has been a notable lack of Israeli commentary lately regarding the ongoing protests. This silence suggests a strategic decision to refrain from intervention, allowing President Trump the freedom to decide his course of action without external pressure.
In recent days, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has conducted several security meetings to discuss the evolving situation in Iran. However, despite his previous aggressive stance—including an unexpected military operation against Iran last summer—Netanyahu has instructed his cabinet members to refrain from making any public statements about Iran.
At the protests' outset, Science Minister Gila Gamliel did make headlines by sharing a selfie on social media while donning a "Make Iran Great Again" hat and expressing support for the demonstrators alongside a video message. Since that moment, however, the Prime Minister’s Office has directed ministers to keep their comments to a minimum, emphasizing discretion at least on two separate occasions.
During a recent weekly government meeting, Netanyahu stated only that Israel was "closely monitoring" the unfolding events in Iran and expressed support for the protesters’ quest for freedom, yet notably refrained from issuing any threats toward Tehran or its supreme leader.
According to an Israeli official, the overarching directive is to maintain silence: "The understanding is that if we intervene, we will only complicate matters further."
The protests, which initially sparked due to rampant inflation, quickly morphed into widespread demonstrations against the Iranian government, spreading across over 180 cities and towns nationwide. In response, the Iranian government has attempted to shift focus away from the real issues driving the protests, instead blaming external forces, particularly the U.S. and Israel, for instigating the unrest.
For Israel, any form of interference at this stage could grant the Iranian regime precisely what it seeks: a distraction from its internal struggles by redirecting attention towards an external adversary.
A former senior Israeli security official commented, "From Israel’s perspective, now is not the ideal time to get involved. There is no benefit to disrupting the internal weakening of the regime or providing them with a pretext to generate domestic support."
Despite the politicians’ silence, the events unfolding in Iran have captivated Israeli media for the last two weeks, reviving fears of potential escalation—a concern shaped by the memories of Iranian missile attacks during a brief conflict in June. Municipalities throughout central Israel have alerted residents that public shelters are available for use as a precautionary measure, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have worked to diminish worries about an immediate threat. An IDF spokesperson reiterated, "The protests in Iran are an internal affair. We are conducting continuous assessments of the situation and will provide updates if there are any significant changes."
Addressing public concern, the mayor of Ramat Gan, a city situated in central Israel, took to social media to express that current circumstances depend less on Israeli actions and more on developments in Iran or on President Trump’s decisions. "Wishing good fortune to the Iranian people. Their success in achieving freedom would also be our success," Mayor Carmel Shama remarked.
However, the protests have complicated some of Israel’s military strategies. The Netanyahu administration has grown increasingly apprehensive regarding Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and what they perceive as Tehran’s efforts to rearm Hezbollah in Lebanon. As a result, operations previously discussed to counter these threats are now under reevaluation. One Israeli official described the current approach as "defensive and responsive."
The former security official cautioned, "Any military action at this time could provide Iran with an excuse to deflect attention from its internal issues, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation."
Sima Shine, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a former head of the Research & Evaluation Division at Mossad, stated that the protests have effectively placed any plans for an Israeli attack on Iran on indefinite hold. She noted, "Once the U.S. expressed its support for the protests, it became natural for Israel to prefer that Washington takes the initiative. There is minimal incentive for Israel to get involved while President Trump evaluates his options and strategizes his next actions."
Nevertheless, Shine warned that should Trump opt for military action against Iran, the dynamics could shift rapidly—particularly if Iran chooses to retaliate against Israel, as it has threatened to do in response to potential American aggression.
