The NHS is bracing for what could be its worst winter crisis on record, driven by a sharp rise in flu cases that has left hospitals, GP practices, and ambulance services stretched to the limit. Hospitals are already admitting more severely ill patients with flu than is typical for this time of year, and officials warn that the strain will intensify in the coming days. They are urging the public to get vaccinated to help families enjoy Christmas gatherings with fewer health risks.
Prime Ministerial figures Keir Starmer and Health Secretary Wes Streeting have publicly challenged the British Medical Association over its decision to call thousands of resident doctors in England out on strike next week, calling it irresponsible. They are pressing junior doctors to back the government’s latest offer to resolve the long-running pay and jobs dispute in hopes of averting a five-day strike that has alarmed the NHS. Sir Jim Mackey, chief executive of NHS England, described the proposed strike as cruel and calculated to cause disruption, though there is a chance it could be called off if enough residents accept the new offer.
NHS England data released on Thursday showed that, last week, an average of 2,660 people per day were treated in hospital for flu, a 55% rise from the 1,717 the week before and enough to fill three NHS trusts. This marked the highest number of flu-related hospitalizations in the first week of December, including 106 people in intensive care, primarily with breathing difficulties. Prof Meghana Pandit, NHS England’s joint medical director, warned that the flu numbers are alarmingly high for this season and are still climbing, signaling a very challenging period ahead for the service.
In addition to flu, the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)—which predominantly affects babies and the elderly—and Covid are contributing to the pressure. A mutated, highly contagious flu strain circulating this winter is also a factor, with experts saying it risks overwhelming hospitals. Some NHS trusts have declared a critical incident, indicating they cannot cope with demand without external help.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) urged those who have not yet had a flu shot to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Dr Conall Watson, a UKHSA consultant epidemiologist, noted that flu vaccines remain widely available and can reduce the risk of serious illness, but highlighted that time to gain protection before Christmas is running short. Officials explained that an unusually early flu season and a drifted H3N2 strain are reducing natural immunity in the community, though the vaccine in use remains effective at preventing severe disease. H3N2 tends to impact older adults more severely, contributing to higher hospitalizations and deaths this winter.
UKHSA’s data also show worrying gaps in vaccination uptake among at-risk groups: just 37.4% of under-65 individuals with one or more long-term conditions have been vaccinated by December 7, with even lower rates among pregnant people (35.6%), children two and under (41.5%), and three-year-olds (42.3%). Vaccination rates among those aged 65 and over are higher (71.7%). Medical professionals urged the public to minimize flu transmission by measures such as masking, social distancing, and remote work where possible.
Shereen Hussein of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine emphasized looking after older relatives and neighbors and getting them vaccinated. She suggested safe, considerate visiting practices this Christmas—short, frequent visits with good ventilation, masks for those with symptoms or recent illness, and opting for phone or video calls if in-person visits aren’t safe. Dr Watson reiterated that people with symptoms should consider wearing a face covering when out in public.
Some pharmacies have reported temporary shortages of flu vaccines, though pharmacy groups said these were isolated incidents and vaccines remain widely available overall. Separately, NHS England data indicated that October’s planned hospital care waiting list rose modestly to 7.4 million treatments from 7.39 million in September.
Dr Vicky Price, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, described the latest performance data as a familiar picture of a system under relentless strain. While the flu surge is cited as a primary cause of the crisis, she argued that it reflects long-standing capacity and workforce shortages within the NHS. Streeting characterized the situation as a “tidal wave of flu” sweeping through hospitals, underscoring the urgency of a resolution.
